Posted Sep 29, 2022, 12:00 PMUpdated on Sep 29, 2022 at 12:39 PM
Perhaps it is necessary to seek the answer of the future of Brazil in the State of Minas Gerais. Since the end of the dictatorship (1964-1985), each victorious candidate in this landlocked state has won the presidential election.
Once monopolized by the fever of the gold diggers who brought out on their way the most beautiful colonial cities of Brazil, Ouro Preto or Tiradentes, this State larger than metropolitan France is the second most populated, with 22 million inhabitants. (10.4% of voters). After the state of Sao Paulo (45 million inhabitants, 22.1% of voters), the economic heart of the country.
On September 24, during the last weekend before the first round of the presidential election (October 2), former President Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT), favorite in the polls, as well as the outgoing President of extreme right Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned there. The two contenders had already come to the “Minas” as the Brazilians say. Bolsonaro launched his campaign there in Juiz de Fora, where in 2018 he was stabbed four years ago. Lula, as the Brazilians call him, had opted for Belo Horizonte, his capital, in August for his first rally.
Miniature puzzle of the South American giant
It is a miniature puzzle of the South American giant in its demographic and social composition (with areas of impoverishment in the North) and it has all the economic diversity (mines, agriculture, steel industry, etc.) of the country. “Referring to the figures of the first round of 2018, we realize, as analyzed by the newspaper “O Globo”, that in the voting intentions, Bolsonaro lost 15 million votes in the three large constituencies of Brazil , Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo,” says Brazilian political scientist Thomas Traumann.
These “swing states” of the South-East are the most populated and the richest: Sao Paulo weighs in at 22% of the GDP; the state of Rio de Janeiro has 17 million inhabitants (8.2% of voters). “Minas is strategic but that does not mean that to be elected president, one must be the winner there. As it is the second electoral college, it is important to have a good proportion of the votes to win, not necessarily the majority”, nuance the writer and sociologist Sergio Abranches.
On October 2, Brazilians will elect a president, 27 governors (the country has 26 states and a federal district), a third of the Senate (27) and choose 513 deputies, members of the lower house of Congress. “More attention should be paid to parliamentary elections,” notes Carlos Pereira, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
It is difficult to predict the composition of Congress. The election battle is also being played out in the state of Bahia (15 million inhabitants, 7.2% of voters) and in that of Pernambuco (10 million inhabitants, 4.5% of voters). The Nordeste (a quarter of the national electorate) from which Lula da Silva originates, is a “fortress of the left”. The southernmost of the Brazilian states, Rio Grande do Sul (5.5% of voters) also deserves some attention. Since 1990, he has changed political color as quickly as governor; a “weather vane” for some, a “master of the democratic game” for others. Verdict on October 2.
