Nord Stream gas pipelines: the impact of leaks alarms climate experts

The concentration of methane (CH4) measured at the ICOS station in Hyltemossa in Sweden

Posted Sep 29, 2022, 10:08 AMUpdated Sep 29, 2022, 5:00 PM

A fourth gas leak was discovered on Thursday in the Baltic Sea, above the two Nord Stream submarine gas pipelines damaged earlier this week. These leaks – two on the Swedish side and two on the Danish side -, possibly due to sabotage according to the Europeans, release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. Environmental specialists are alarmed by the potentially strong impact on the climate.

Methane, whose emissions have reached record levels this year, alone is responsible for nearly a quarter of global warming since the industrial era. In question, a warming power twenty-eight times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a 100-year horizon. Its impact is even worse in the short term, with the warming potential being more than 80 times higher over twenty years. However, its lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than that of CO2.

“Climate Destruction”

At the time of the leaks, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines were not in service due to the war in Ukraine. But they contained significant amounts of natural gas, which is 90% methane. Without knowing the exact volumes at the time of the damage, experts and NGOs estimate that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would contain between 150 and 300 million cubic meters of gas.

At least 115,000 tonnes of methane (i.e. 3 million tonnes of CO equivalent2) could thus end up in the atmosphere if all the gas escaped from Nord Stream 2. And twice as much taking into account the leaks on Nord Stream 1, i.e. the equivalent of the annual emissions of 1.4 million vehicles. “However, this is only about 0.2% of annual methane emissions from fossil fuels,” tempers climatologist Zeke Hausfather, who participates in the work of the IPCC.

Greenpeace says leaks could have the same ‘climate destruction’ potential as 30 million tonnes of CO2, equivalent to the emissions of 20 million cars in one year in the European Union. This figure put forward by the environmental association caused the climatologist Philippe Ciais to react. “If your calculations are correct, and I believe they are,” that would “undo 50% of annual CO2 reduction efforts2 of all Twenty-Seven,” he tweeted.

Gas hundreds of miles away

The magnitude of the impact will depend on the duration of the leaks. And here again, the estimates diverge. The only certainty: the leaks will locally have “an immediate warming effect and on the quality of the air”, warns Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Center for Climate, at the University of Leeds. But globally, they represent only about two and a half hours of emissions, according to Jeffrey Kargel of the Planetary Research Institute, quoted by AFP.

The concentration of methane (CH4) measured at the ICOS station in Hyltemossa in Sweden

The concentration of methane (CH4) measured at the ICOS station in Hyltemossa in SwedenICOS Sweden

This Thursday, several Scandinavian stations Icos, the European greenhouse gas observation network, published their first measurements of the impressive methane peak they detected in the atmosphere on Tuesday and Wednesday. “We studied the wind conditions […] and we can see that the air masses seem to come from maritime areas of the Baltic Sea where the gas pipelines are leaking,” Tobias Biermann, an engineer at Hyltemossa in the south of the country, told the Swedish press.

Some 800 kilometers from the leaks, the Norunda station also noted a very high concentration. If they are “not 100% sure”, the scientists of the network speak of “a great probability” that this peak results from the leaks.

The identity of the author of the Nord Stream sabotage is in no doubt, for the IEA

The executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, estimated on Thursday that the identity of those responsible for the leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines was “in no doubt”, without citing Russia by name, pointed out singled out by some experts. He also judged that Europe should “survive this winter” in terms of natural gas supply “in the absence of unpleasant surprises”.

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