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President Jair Bolsonaro

Brazil’s ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may not even have to go into the runoff for the presidency after the first round on Sunday: According to a survey on Monday, the 76-year-old currently has 52 percent, while incumbent Jair Messias Bolsonaro only has 34 Percent. Other polls also see “Lula,” as he is known, at more than 50 percent, with Bolsonaro well behind.

The former union leader would be the first Brazilian president to serve a third term. He had already ruled for two terms from 2003 and resigned in 2010 with approval ratings of more than 80 percent. However, the founder of the Labor Party PT spent a total of 580 days behind bars between April 2018 and November 2019 for corruption and money laundering. Thanks to Lula’s absence, Bolsonaro was able to seize the presidency at the end of 2018. Lula’s convictions were overturned in early 2021 due to procedural errors and the ex-president regained his political rights.

President Jair Bolsonaro

President Jair Bolsonaro

Since then he has led the polls by up to 20 percent ahead of Bolsonaro. In the meantime, this was reduced to around ten percent in August after government social benefits had been raised and fuel prices reduced. In addition, the 64-year-old used his wife Michelle at campaign events. The First Lady primarily addressed the evangelical audience, two-thirds of whom voted for Bolsonaro in 2018. Currently, however, Bolsonaro’s lead with evangelicals is only 18 percent, according to Datafolha.

Central candidates disappoint

The election campaign, which was polarized between the Lula camp on the left and Bolsonaro on the right, prevented a candidate from the center from developing into a real alternative. From the initially half-dozen centrist candidates, only two serious candidates are now entering the home straight: Ciro Gomes, who is based in the social democratic camp, and the centre-right candidate Simone Tebet. Both should reach around 5 percent on Sunday.

Towels and hats with campaign advertising for Lula da Silva

Towels and hats with campaign advertising for Lula da Silva

The current election campaign is similar to the polarization of 2018. Bolsonaro’s victory over PT candidate Fernando Haddad was seen as a receipt for the PT, which was plagued by corruption scandals. Now the tide has turned: Bolsonaro’s popularity ratings are low due to his catastrophic pandemic policy and constant attacks on democratic institutions. The voters let Lula get away with not presenting a clear election program so far. The former president promises to make Brazil “happy” again.

Bolsonaro predicts his own landslide victory

Contrary to forecasts, Bolsonaro continues to speak of his clear victory in the first round. “That is also the feeling of the vast majority of the Brazilian people,” Bolsonaro said in mid-September. When he campaigns, he is so enthusiastic that anything but a victory on Sunday is unthinkable. When he won in 2018, Bolsonaro had already claimed that the electronic urns had been manipulated and that he was robbed of the overwhelming victory in the first round.

PT supporters at a Lula da Silva rally in Sao Paulo

PT supporters at a Lula da Silva rally in Sao Paulo

Since then he has repeated the allegations without providing any evidence. Bolsonaro’s conspiracy theory is widely accepted among his followers. On Wednesday, his party, the Partido Liberal (PL), published a letter again questioning the security of the ballot box. Bolsonaro had repeatedly threatened not to recognize the election results. In doing so, he would be following the “script” of his idol Donald Trump, who has not yet acknowledged his election defeat in November 2020.

Riots feared over Bolsonaro’s defeat

Observers fear similar unrest in Brazil as on January 6, 2021 at the Capitol in Washington. In a first reaction, Bolsonaro had shown understanding for the acts of violence. The American elections were manipulated in the same way as the Brazilian elections in 2018. It is also worrying that the hard core of Bolsonaro supporters includes a large number of gun enthusiasts. Thanks to Bolsonaro’s liberalization of gun laws, around one million citizens are now allowed to carry a gun. When he took office, there were only 120,000.

There have been a number of violent incidents in recent weeks. In July, a Bolsonaro supporter shot and killed a PT party member in Foz do Iguaçu, southern Brazil. At least two other cases in which Bolsonaro supporters killed Lula voters are classified as politically motivated violence. In addition, there are numerous aggressions between supporters of both camps. The Lula camp fear PT voters may stay away from Sunday’s polls for fear of violence.

Bolsonaro fans in Brasilia

Bolsonaro fans in Brasilia

The human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) was also concerned in a statement published on Thursday. “Hate speeches, harassment and serious political violence both online and offline have left many Brazilians afraid to speak out and exercise their political rights,” said Juanita Goebertus, HRW Americas director. The authorities may take all necessary measures to ensure that Brazilians can vote in safety.

A total of around 156 million Brazilians are called upon to cast their votes. In addition to the president, the governors, congressmen and members of the state parliaments are elected. Runoff elections are scheduled for October 30th.


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