The situation is serious: “There is no threat of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the political crisis is very deep,” emphasized Christian Schmidt at a press conference in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo in spring 2022. In a report to the UN, the former German Minister of Agriculture and today’s High Representative (HR) of the international community in the small western Balkan country had already warned of “the greatest existential threat” to Bosnia since the end of the war in 1995.
Christian Schmidt, the High Representative (HR) of the international community in Bosnia
Responsible for this threat are the nationalist parties of the three peoples of the multi-ethnic state that are “constitutive” according to the constitution – the “Party of Democratic Action” (SDA) of the Bosniaks, the “Association of Independent Social Democrats” (SNSD) of the Bosnian Serbs and the “Croatian Democratic Community”. ” (HDZ) of Croats in the country. In the past 27 years they have deeply divided Bosnia politically and divided it among themselves.
Dayton legacy
Against this background, Bosnian voters are called on October 2, 2022 to vote on various political levels in the highly complicated structure of their state. Bosnia owes its political and administrative structure to the peace agreement negotiated at the end of 1995 at the US air base in Dayton, Ohio. On the one hand, “Dayton” ended the Bosnian war, in which around 120,000 people had been killed since 1992 – but on the other hand it created a state ruled by the national principle.
It begins with the two parts of the country known as “entities”: Bosnian Serbs live in the “Republika Srpska” (RS), while Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats live in the ten cantons of the “Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina” (FBiH). Most majority Bosniak areas are dominated by the SDA, most majority Croatian by the HDZ.
Both entities have their own parliaments and governments. The RS President and the RS Parliament are to be re-elected on October 2nd. In addition, there is the all-Bosnian parliament, the three members of the “Presidium” – Bosnia’s collective head of state – and the parliaments of the FBiH entity and the cantons.
A fatal design flaw
Dayton also became the “Office of the High Representative” (Office of the High Representative, EAR) created. Equipped with far-reaching powers, the so-called “Bonn Powers” (Bonn powers of attorney), its head, the HR, is to monitor compliance with the provisions of the peace treaty and, if he sees fit, even steer it. For example, HR can rewrite laws, remove elected politicians or fire civil servants.
The Serbian flag – not Bosnia’s – is emblazoned on the wall of the parliament of the Bosnian “entity” Republika Srpska
Apart from that, the political order of post-war Bosnia is based exclusively on the ethno principle. This goes so far that only members of the constitutive peoples have full active and passive voting rights at all levels of government. Members of the numerous minorities in Bosnia – Roma, Jews or even all citizens who do not want to classify themselves ethnically – cannot run for the state presidency.
nepotism and corruption
For the nationalist parties, the ethnic key is the main instrument for gaining and maintaining power. When filling almost all positions in the administration, in the state apparatus and in the many state or state-controlled companies in the country, attention is paid not only to ethnic, but above all to party-political affiliation. These are ideal conditions for nepotism and corruption, and political esprit de corps is encouraged.
In Bosnia nothing works without national symbols: a Serbian, a Bosnian and a Croatian table flag at a conference in Sarajevo
Another consequence is the de facto ungovernability of the country. Above all, intent on consolidating influence in their ethnic group, the nationalist parties show little interest in functioning joint or even central institutions. The Bosnian constitutional court has not been fully staffed for months, the government of the federation has only worked provisionally for years, important laws cannot be passed because the responsible parliaments are repeatedly blocked.
Alliance of Nationalists
In addition, the head of the SNSD, Milorad Dodik, who is also the representative of the Bosnian-Serb constituency in the state presidency, repeatedly threatens a secession from the Republika Srpska. Dodik is thus keeping both the Bosnian public and the representatives of the international community in the country in a kind of permanent state of emergency.
Dragan Covic and Milorad Dodik, the leaders of the Bosnian Croat and Serb nationalist parties
Dodik is supported by the HDZ. The Croatian nationalists justify their lack of cooperation in the state institutions with dissatisfaction with the electoral law, which allegedly puts Croats in Bosnia at a serious disadvantage compared to Bosniaks. The current representative of the Croats in the state presidency, Zeljko Komsic, was elected to the committee primarily by Bosniak citizens, complained HDZ chairman Dragan Covic. The social democrat and non-nationalist is therefore not a representative of the Bosnian Croats.
Protest against Christian Schmidt in front of the High Representative’s office in Sarajevo in August 2022
And the SDA? The Bosniak party, which presents itself as the guarantor of a joint Bosnian state, has only recently shown that it too knows how to play the nationalist keyboard: dissatisfied with the High Representative’s announcement that the electoral law would be changed supposedly in favor of the Croats want, the SDA organized mass protests in front of the OHR headquarters in Sarajevo. Party leader Bakir Izetbegovic spoke of the “possibility of armed resistance”. As a result, Christian Schmidt dropped his plan and only approved a few minor technical changes.
outside helpers
Bosnia’s nationalists also have supporters abroad. Dodik often appears with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and openly demonstrates that the Serbian capital Belgrade is more important to him than Sarajevo in Bosnia. Covic’s demands are backed by leading politicians in the Croatian capital Zagreb. Izetbegovic, on the other hand, flaunts his ideological-political, but also personal closeness to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The head of the Bosniak party SDA Bakir Izetbegovic (left) with Turkish President Erdogan in Sarajevo in 2015
Years of political deadlock caused by the blockade policies of the nationalist parties and their mentors in neighboring countries have ruined Bosnia: Transparency International’s 2021 corruption index places the country 110th out of 180. The economy is one of the weakest in Europe, and poverty is widespread. Unemployment is around 16 percent. More and more people are leaving Bosnia. Around half a million have gone since 2013, and around 170,000 in 2021 alone. In 1991 the population was almost 4.4 million, in 2020 only 3.3 million.Most of the emigrants went to European Union countries. An EU accession of Bosnia is for more than a quarter of a century also the proclaimed goal of all political forces in the country. But even Bosnia, which applied for membership in 2016, is still a long way from candidate status. Brussels has one A checklist with 14 points was drawn up, after the fulfillment of which the path to accession negotiations would be at least formally open – but so far not a single one has been fulfilled.
An improvement or even an end through elections is unlikely in Bosnia. In view of the situation, the assessment by the High Representative quoted at the beginning has a reassuring effect that the Western Balkans are at least not threatened by war.
