Posted Sep 29, 2022, 7:21 PMUpdated on Sep 29, 2022 at 7:24 p.m.
“If we don’t fail at times, it’s because we haven’t challenged ourselves”. The great return of Porsche AG to the stock market had to refer, in some way, to the maxim of the creator of the “people’s car”, Ferdinand Porsche.
The bet to succeed in the biggest fundraising since that of Glencore eleven years ago and the enthronement of the largest capitalization of this century in Europe has been met despite perilous markets. Placing 9.4 billion euros with investors who have put two-thirds of the Stoxx 600 in bearish territory this year is a tour de force.
But the start-up regime of the manufacturer of the 911 (+0.45% at the end of the session, and +5.2% at the highest) was more “Pathetic” than “Valkyrie”. The opportunity for a 6% discount induced by a capitalization of 75 billion euros compared to the fundamental value calculated by AlphaValue was not taken.
The scarcity effect worked in reverse. Less than 12% of stocks “rotated”, although according to Bloomberg half of the original holding hands were left empty.
Valued with a discount of more than 60% on the multiples of Ferrari, and a premium of as much on those of BMW, Porsche will have to trace its own stock market path without the support of an American quotation.
The DAX index will have to manage the redundancies of a new triplet (Volkswagen, Porsche AG, Porsche SE) in addition to that of the “three” Siemens.
To note
IPO volumes have fallen by 70% since the start of the year worldwide, which makes that of Porsche AG even more exceptional.
Around 11 times the operating profit expected this year, Porsche AG is valued around 16% above the multiple observed from 2000 to 2007 for its predecessor Porsche SE (which remained listed after the automotive business was transferred to Volkswagen at the end of a stock market battle in 2008-2009). And 8% below the peak observed at the end of 2007.
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