Gas bubbles to the surface off Bornholm from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Photo: IMAGO/Danska Forsvaret
There is no doubt. The three leaks on the two westbound but non-operational Baltic Sea gas pipelines leading from Russia are the result of sabotage. While NATO is conspicuously reluctant to comment, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seemed quite alarmed on Wednesday about the specific case: “Any intentional disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible reaction.” Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy representative, even threatened “with a robust and joint response”. Against who? It is currently completely unclear who is responsible for the unprecedented explosions of the underwater pipelines.
It is reasonable to assume that underwater drones were hired for this “job”. It is unclear who controlled them from where. Although it is possible to advance from the sea surface to the sea depth of 70 meters that is common off Bornholm, this requires special technical requirements, takes a long time and is noticeable.
For Ukraine it is clear that this is a “terrorist attack planned by Russia”. The sabotage of the lines was an “aggression against the EU,” Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak was sure on Tuesday. Poland takes the same line. The Russian government is reluctant to raise suspicions. The TV channel Russia Today, on the other hand, points out that Russia’s domestic service FSB recently foiled an attack commissioned by Ukraine against a pipeline that supplies Turkey and southern Europe with natural gas.
Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, the Inspector of the German Navy, demonstrated downright visionary abilities. In an interview with “Welt” published a few days ago, he explained that Russia had built up “considerable capacities” under water and recalled that “there is some critical infrastructure such as pipelines or undersea cables on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, but also in the Atlantic for IT«. Moscow could quickly switch off the lights of countries like Estonia. In addition, there are “threats to global communication structures that you have to pay particular attention to”.
That’s so. More than 99 percent of global data traffic is handled via a network of around 280 undersea cables. They have a length of more than a million kilometers. Sounds absurd, but it’s true: the faster wireless digitization progresses, the more dependent we are on thick fiber optic lines laid on the seabed. Because of their transmission capacity, which is 200 times higher than that of satellites, they are indispensable for worldwide communication. Forecasts state that data traffic across the Atlantic will double every two years.
The fact that cables, pipelines or tunnels – the one opened in the English Channel in 1994 measures 50 kilometers – and other connecting underwater elements that are difficult to secure and difficult to repair are a lucrative target for hybrid warfare is often overlooked. Or deliberately kept secret. But as early as 2017, NATO naval warfare experts claimed that both Russian underwater and surface units were staying more and more often and longer in areas where critical infrastructure was laid. In January, a similar Russian maneuver off the coast of Ireland caused a stir. The British military chief, Admiral Tony Radakin, warned once again that Russia is threatening “the world’s information system” primarily with the help of three research ships and the use of underwater drones. He must know how to do this. After all, the British Navy is currently building a special ship that is said to only protect critical connections.
France is no less active in what is known as seabed warfare. Just last February, Secretary of Defense Florence Parly and Chief of Staff General Thierry Burkhard unveiled a new and very sophisticated “seabed warfare strategy.” It extends to a depth of 6000 meters. Anyone who wants to and loves conspiracy ideas can possibly even identify Paris as the perpetrator of the sabotage.
Of course, the United States is always suspect. Washington has an interest in a permanent interruption of the Russian energy flow to the EU. If only because US companies want to land liquid gas in Europe. According to information from the “Spiegel”, the CIA warned the German government in the summer of possible attacks on the gas pipelines. It is quite conceivable that the US foreign intelligence service was thinking of an attack that it had staged itself. Finally, under President Donald Trump, Washington put very crude pressure on the German-Russian gas cooperation and under his successor Joe Biden, somewhat more subtly. There is no doubt that the US Navy would be capable of such a “three leak energy policy”. As early as 1997, the spy agency NSA and the Navy proposed modifying “special operations” submarines and equipping them with “advanced technology for special naval warfare and tactical surveillance.” In addition, there are the Navy Seals for “unconventional warfare”.
