Posted Sep 27, 2022, 4:37 PMUpdated Sep 27, 2022, 6:00 PM
Has Vladimir Putin found a new way to brandish the gas weapon towards Europeans? Leaks were detected on Monday and Tuesday on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines which link Russia to Germany passing under the waters of the Baltic Sea. These extremely rare, sudden and simultaneous events immediately raised suspicions of sabotage on the part of Moscow, even if it was impossible to affirm it with certainty on Tuesday at the end of the day.
The three large leaks identified off the Danish island of Bornholm, located between the Swedish and Polish coasts, are visible on the surface. The Danish army reported boiling water ranging from 200 meters to 1 kilometer in diameter, broadcasting spectacular images in support. Navigation has been prohibited within a radius of five nautical miles (9 kilometers) around the three leaks, as well as their overflight within a radius of one kilometer. Two underwater explosions, “most likely due to detonations”, were recorded before the leaks, according to Sweden’s National Seismic Network.
Pipelines full of gas
The two undersea pipelines were already shut down, so the accidents have no immediate impact on the already severely disrupted gas supply to the European Union. Nord Stream 1 was shut down by Gazprom at the end of August for an indefinite period. As for Nord Stream 2, it has never been put into service because it has been subject to sanctions from the Twenty-Seven since the invasion of Ukraine in February. The two pipes, which follow the same route on the bottom of the sea, are nevertheless full of gas.
The Kremlin denies any responsibility. Moscow said it was “extremely concerned”, adding that “no” explanation should be ruled out, including the hypothesis of sabotage. “It’s hard to imagine that it was accidental,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. For the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, there is no doubt that this is “an act of sabotage”. Ukraine denounced for its part a “terrorist act”. In Washington, a spokesman for the White House announced that the United States was “ready” to support the Europeans.
” Extremely rare “
Without waiting to find out more, Copenhagen has placed its energy infrastructure on orange alert, the second highest level of vigilance. How would the saboteurs have proceeded? “It is impossible to know at this stage but it is in any case not necessary to directly sabotage the pipe at the bottom of the sea to cause gas leaks, explains Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po. result by suddenly varying the pressure upwards or downwards at the entrance to the gas pipeline, in Russia”.
What would be the interest for Moscow? “For Vladimir Putin, this could be a way of showing Europeans that he has one more weapon in his panoply,” continues the expert. In the longer term, of course, such an action risks ending forever any hope of a resumption of gas flows between Russia and Europe, in particular via Nord Stream 1. But the master of the Kremlin seems to have draw a line under this source of income.
Prices are jumping
Coincidence of the calendar? This Tuesday was inaugurated the Baltic Pipe, a gas pipeline that supplies Poland with gas from Norway, via Denmark. Warsaw has largely financed this infrastructure, a project designed almost twenty years ago to free Poland from Russian gas.
The markets reacted with nervousness to these mysterious accidents. The European gas contract for next month jumped 12% in the Netherlands in Tuesday’s session, to more than 195 euros per megawatt hour. However, prices remain well below their peak of 346 euros reached at the end of August when Nord Stream 1 was shut down. that identifying the saboteur and his motives remains highly speculative,” comments James Huckstepp, analyst at S&P Global.
