Rising planetary temperatures and its adverse effects on life on Earth have triggered actions globally to slow or reverse climate change. The Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change, has set a goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, a new study suggests that even if we achieve that goal, by 2100 tropical and subtropical regions will experience dangerously warm temperatures for most days of the year. Countries in these regions include India, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula.
While these parts will be warmer due to warmer temperatures, severe heat waves can be seen in the middle latitudes of the world. The city of Chicago in the US is an example from the middle population, which, according to the researchers, shows the dangers of extremely high temperatures. The team randomly sampled scenarios of global mean temperature change and local scaling patterns for Chicago to measure changes in heat waves for the city. It was predicted that there would be a 16-fold increase in dangerous heat waves in Chicago by the end of the century.
The researchers suggest that even if we limit global warming to below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, the world will still warm by 2 °C by 2050. “Extremely dangerous heat stress will be a regular feature of climate in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Arabian Peninsula and much of the Indian subcontinent,” the researchers write in their study published in communication earth and environment,
The estimates given by the team are based on the heat index, a metric that only considers relative humidity up to a certain level. According to this, in tropical regions, 50 percent of the days each year by 2050 could see a dangerous heat index. In addition, it has been found that 25 percent of the days will be extremely hot.
The researchers highlight that without adequate measures and emissions reductions, this increase in temperature will result in more heat-related diseases and also reduce the ability to do outdoor work in many parts of the world where subsistence farming is important.
