Posted Sep 30, 2022 8:30 AM
Bulgarian voters are voting this Sunday, for the fourth time in less than eighteen months. These legislative elections should unfortunately not allow the country of 7 million inhabitants to emerge from the political impasse in which it finds itself. Many political scientists predict that a fifth election will be called early next year, as no stable coalition of parties is expected to emerge from the polls.
The poorest country in the European Union has been plagued by political instability since the spring of 2021, after elections which ended Boiko Borissov’s twelve-year reign. The last Prime Minister to date, the very pro-European Kiril Petkov, fell this summer after the defection of one of the parties of his fragile coalition, which barely lasted eight months.
Corruption “at a pandemic level”
Polls predict an equally fragmented political landscape after Sunday’s vote, favored by the voting system. Boïko Borissov’s GERB would come in first with more than 20% of the vote, followed by Kiril Petkov’s party, called “We continue the change”, credited with 17% according to a Market Links poll.
But an alliance of the two ex-Prime Ministers seems excluded, as Kiril Petkov has built his success on the opposition to Boïko Borissov, whom he accuses of having installed a system of corruption on a large scale in the country. “Corruption is at a pandemic level in Bulgaria,” laments Mariyan Sabev, of the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia.
The war has reinforced the red lines
“As in other European countries, the rise of anti-system parties reduces the possibilities of a coalition,” comments Lukas Macek, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe at the Jacques-Delors Institute. In Bulgaria, this problem is accentuated by an extremely divided political scene, which produces particularly unstable coalitions. Boïko Borissov arouses a strong rejection of the other parties, but the latter are incapable of agreeing”.
As for the pro-Western centrist Kiril Petkov, he is also struggling to bring together, in particular the small parties more or less close to Russia such as the Socialist Party, heir to the Communist Party of the Soviet era, or the far right Renaissance, in full ascent. “The war has reinforced the red lines for many political formations, which makes agreements even more difficult”, analyzes Mariyan Sabev.
Russia, a structuring divide
“In a context where the right and the left no longer mean much, the relationship with Russia is a traditionally structuring divide in Bulgaria, and this is obviously even more the case since the start of the war in Ukraine”, analyzes Nadège Ragaru, director of research at Sciences Po. The pro-Russians are numerous within the Socialist Party in particular, and Renaissance, credited with a good progression with approximately 9% of the voting intentions, clearly displays an anti-European and pro-Russian program.
Bulgaria is one of the first countries in Europe, with Poland, to which the Russian company Gazprom cut off gas in April, because the government of Kiril Petkov refused the payment system in rubles demanded by the Kremlin. The country consumes relatively little gas, which puts the economic impact of this decision into perspective. It is nevertheless violently contested by several parties who maintain the idea that the end of Russian gas is causing energy prices to jump.
Inflation exceeds 17% in a country whose GDP per capita is four times lower than the EU average. The provisional government, in charge since the departure of Kiril Petkov in July, even announced that it wanted to sign a new contract with Gazprom, without result for the moment.
A government of technicians?
“We can imagine a new coalition comprising minority pro-Russian parties like in Italy,” says Lukas Macek. We would then go from a government of Kiril Petkov very firm vis-à-vis Moscow to an executive much less clear on the issue. This would not fundamentally change the balance of power within the EU, because Bulgaria does not have the same weight as Italy. But it can contribute to slippage. »
However, the most probable hypothesis, in view of the polls, would be a government of technicians who would deal with current affairs… pending new elections.
