Demonstration for the union with Russia in Luhansk. With the annexation, the war in Ukraine enters a new phase.
Photo: Sputnik Luhansk People’s Republic/ Maxim Zakharov
At noon on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the agreement with the four in the Kremlin Ukrainian regions where the sham referendums took place about joining the Russian Federation. Are these annexed?
Not yet. After the signing, Vladimir Putin will give a “comprehensive speech” at the jubilee concert on Red Square and announce that Russian territories have been “taken back”. From a legal point of view, the agreements with the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are only the first step. Both houses of parliament – the Duma and the Security Council – must then ratify the documents. Theoretically, Moscow should first recognize the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts as independent.
The Duma chairman, Vyacheslav Volodin, first rushed ahead and announced a special session for September 30. But there won’t be. Instead, both chambers will ratify the documents and thus the annexation at their scheduled sessions on October 4th. From the presidential administration it was said that the Kremlin did not want to rush the annexation in view of the mobilization. In addition, the Russian constitution must be amended to accommodate new territories. Specifically, it is about Article 65, which lists the subjects of the Russian Federation.
The annexation is also unusual in that Russia is annexing areas it doesn’t fully control, explains political scientist Yekaterina Schulman.
On Thursday evening, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergey Kiriyenko, said that Russia is allocating 3.3 billion rubles ($60.1 million) to support the territories.
What are the effects of the annexation on Russia and Ukraine?
Officially, an overwhelming majority in the occupied territories voted to join Russia. Some of the Russian media are already cheering and, similar to the crime annexation in 2014, are happy about the symbolic effect. After all, these are areas that Tsarina Catherine the Great conquered in the 18th century. In addition, Russia will have an increase in population of five to six million inhabitants. It is doubtful that they really all want to go to Russia voluntarily. In the past few months, few people in the Cherson and Zaporizhia regions have wanted to get a Russian passport. In addition, many people left the areas after the Russian invasion, in Cherson more than half fled, according to estimates.
Possibly, according to the political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov, Moscow itself does not know exactly what is to happen after the annexation. Putin may have deliberately escalated to force Ukraine to negotiate. In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the votes a farce and ruled out talks with Putin.
Escalated by the annexation of the war of Ukraine?
This assumption is expressed by many sides. The very announcement of the referenda is a reaction to Ukraine’s military successes. On Wednesday, Donetsk separatist leader Denis Puschilin said the war would reach a “new stage” after the referendums. Dmitry Medvedev, ex-President and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, wrote on Telegram that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if it has to.
Military expert Oleg Ignatov of the International Crisis Group calls the referendums a “very serious escalation.” The annexation allows Moscow to count any Ukrainian advance in recapture as an attack on its territory. In addition, the Kremlin regards the areas under Kiev’s control as “Ukrainian-occupied” and therefore sees itself as entitled to “liberate” them. The “red line”, ie the attack on Russian territory and thus a possible use of nuclear weapons, has thus shifted and become thinner. However, the statements made by the Russian government in this regard are extremely ambivalent, so that the risk of a nuclear escalation cannot be assessed.
Are men from these areas now being drafted into the war against Ukraine?
Since men from the Cherson and Zaporizhia regions are considered Russian citizens after the annexation, they are also subject to partial mobilization. Anatoly Stelmakh, Deputy Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, estimates that Russia is conscripting at least 80,000 men in the two territories to compensate for its own losses.
