Posted Oct 2, 2022, 12:50 PM
Following Saturday’s parliamentary election, the Latvian political spectrum is marked by the decline of parties close to the Russian-speaking minority. The outgoing centre-right Prime Minister, Krisjanis Karins, emerges as the big winner of the legislative elections. His party, New Unity, came out on top. With 18.93% of the vote, he is at least 6 points ahead of his immediate competitors, the Greens and the Peasants (center right, 12.65%) and the Unified List (the Greens and regional parties, 10.97% ). Five other parties are between 5% and 10%. But above all, New Unity, which was a small party during the previous legislature (7% of the vote), will triple its seats in the Saeima. The Latvian President, Egils Levits, who enjoys great discretionary power in the matter, should probably entrust the formation of the next government to Krisjanis Karins.
Marginalization
“The war in Ukraine marginalized the so-called pro-Russian parties, such as Harmonie, which had a certain importance but was never able to be part of a government coalition”, observes Cécile Bayou, associate researcher at CREE (Inalco) and editor in head of the Gaze on the East site. This time, Harmony, which has already lost the town hall of Riga and won only 4% of the vote (compared to 19% in 2018), will not be able to count any deputy in the new parliament since it is necessary to obtain a minimum of 5 % of vote. No more than the Latvian Union of Russians, considered pro-Kremlin. Only Stabilité!, another party supported by part of the Russian-speaking community, was able to pass the threshold with 6.75% of the vote.
“With the war in Ukraine, the Russian-speaking population was more or less put on notice to affirm its loyalty”, observes Cécile Bayou. There have been several layers of Russian immigration to Latvia over the years, making it a very heterogeneous group. Recently, many dissident Russian media have been welcomed in Riga, such as Medusa BBC Russian Services or Novaya Gazeta whose managing editor was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021.
But the doors are now closed, the authorities fearing to be infiltrated by Kremlin agents. Russian aggression in Ukraine came as a huge shock to some. Until then, the relationship with Russia was passable, without much trust, but that was enough for business relations.
On August 10, the Saeima adopted a resolution qualifying Russia as a “state supporting terrorism”. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the country has never ceased, with its Baltic neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania, to alert and demand the most extreme severity against the Kremlin. All three left the Soviet fold in 1991. Their membership of NATO and the European Union, the forthcoming arrival of Sweden and Finland in the Atlantic alliance, and the reduction of the Russian military to their border (in order to repatriate resources to Ukraine) reassure them a little. “If the courage of Ukrainians in combat is greatly admired, there is a latent anguish that runs through society with the idea that all this is going to end badly”, remarks Cécile Bayou.
Around 40,000 Ukrainians have been taken in since the start of the conflict. Their knowledge of Russian facilitates their integration. The administration is in the process of promoting the acceptance of diploma equivalences, particularly in the medical field.
Record inflation
The Latvian population is very concerned about the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine with the rising costs of energy, electricity and food, “but they understand that this is the price to pay to avoid d ‘have the war at home,’ remarks a connoisseur of the country. They blame a lack of preparation on the part of the government, particularly with regard to the diversification of the supply of energy resources. The country nevertheless has the largest natural gas storage reservoir in Europe, at Incukalns.
“The Latvians are very absorbed by the question of social benefits which they are afraid of seeing reduced in favor of a defense budget which could increase to represent 2.5% of the GDP”, notes Cécile Bayou.
According to Eurostat, it is one of the four countries of the European Union (along with Greece, Croatia and the Netherlands) to have seen his lowest incomes decrease between 2019 and 2021, under the effect of the covid pandemic. A law also provides for an increase in the minimum wage from 500 to 620 euros next year and then to 700 euros in 2024. Last year the average gross salary increased by 11.8% to 1,277 euros. But if inflation is a little less important than in its neighbor Estonia (24.2%) which holds the European record in September according to the first estimates, Latvia is close behind with Lithuania (22.5% and 22.4% respectively). According to the EBRD, growth is expected to slow to 2.5% this year and 0.8% in 2023.
