Posted Oct 3, 2022 2:28 PMUpdated Oct 3, 2022 2:29 PM
In Brazil, paranoia is gaining ground and it was unsurprisingly far-right President Bolsonaro who lit the fuse. The phenomenon gained momentum during the first round on October 2, which did not allow former President Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to cross the 50% threshold and a vote that ensures the victoire. Lula, the big favorite in the polls, won only 48.3% of the vote against 43% for the incumbent. Far-right President Jair Bolsonaro with a disastrous record in many areas (including the management of the pandemic 680,000 deaths including 400,000 attributable to the government) obtained a much better score than expected. In the young democracy that is Brazil, emerging from the Dictatorship (1964-1985), the day of the election illustrated a growing polarization and a crisis of confidence. In 24 hours, Judge Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Court said and repeated that this election had to take place “in an absolutely peaceful manner” and that respect for the electronic voting system, decried by Jair Bolsonaro, was that of democracy.
“Fear and paranoia are like a second skin, it was the presence of three police officers that reassured me,” confided Adriana, a nurse, in front of a polling station in the Humaitá district of Rio de Janeiro. In Brazil, you can enter a polling station with your political color and many do. In Copacabana, in a polling station located not far from one of the most famous beaches in Brazil, some wore red T-shirts on October 2 as a sign of support for Lula da Silva, and still more others wore the colors of the country, yellow and green, national symbols monopolized by Bolsonaro. These two Brazils no longer speak to each other.
New grip on Congress
Not only will the clash of the titans in the second round be tighter than announced, but Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) coalition has gained ground in Congress, with more Senate positions and a tidal wave offering it the majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Bolsonaro took control in the rich states of the south-east, including the state of Rio, (8.2% of voters). He won 51.09% of the vote. His ally, Governor Claudio Castro (PL) was re-elected with flying colors. Now 7 out of 10 deputies elected from the state of Rio belong to his party. The “wonderful city”, queen of Samba and Carnival is carried by the conservative wave. We believed a little too quickly to be able to classify the 2018 election of the “Trump of the tropics” as a mishap. Despite a poor record, his projections which surpass those of the former American president and his populist strategy which aims to always divide Brazilians, he makes his new party a political force. Eight of its former ministers were elected to Congress; including in Rio de Janeiro, the former Minister of Health Eduardo Pazuello (PL) responsible for a calamitous management of the pandemic.
A second round more complex than an “extension”
Lula wanted to reassure by comparing the second round (October 30) to an “extension” as in a football match, but “tensions are likely to increase” fears Brazilian political scientist Thomas Trautmann. To convince, Lula will have to avoid the art of dribbling, this dodging technique that characterizes the Brazilian game. Bolsonaro, however rejected by 58% of voters according to the polls, is embarking on a new campaign which opens for him with greater chances of re-election. Because Lula also has a significant rejection of 40% that no one wanted to see. “No question of the return of the rotten and corruption” is a phase heard in the Center of Rio as in the chic districts. In Rio de Janeiro, the pro Bolsonaro vote far exceeds the evangelists (a third of the population). It is a traditionalist vote that affects all social classes: God, family, homeland… and then there is the “belly vote”, the effect of aid paid by the government to the poorest. There is also a very uneducated “middle class” who believes in all the canards of the Bolsonaro clan. Brazilian populism goes beyond a mimicry to Trump; it is rooted in the country’s history (slavery), and the historic recession of 2015-2016 strongly crystallized new fears.
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