Many now look at the gas meter more often than once a year to read it.
Photo: dpa/Jan Woitas
After the alleged acts of sabotage against the two double-strand Baltic Sea pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2, there is no reliable evidence of the background. On the other hand, it is clear what effects this will have on the German energy supply: none in the short term. “No gas has been delivered via Nord Stream 1 since the beginning of September and Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation,” said the Federal Network Agency on Thursday.
The question is, however, what effects this could have for the winter months, when consumption in private households in particular increases significantly during the heating period. So far there have been some hopes that Russia might then deliver a certain amount through Nord Stream 1 again. These should now have finally been smashed, because any repairs will take a long time in view of the probable damage and the complicated foreign policy situation. Since at the same time any prospect of an easing in wholesale prices has evaporated, there is no longer any way around a gas price cap. This is likely to have promoted the agreement announced on Thursday within the coalition after previously endless internal negotiations.
The question of price is one thing, the foreseeable undersupply of the national economy with natural gas in the coming winter is another. According to the network agency, the energy storage is now 91.5 percent full. Even fully filled storage tanks would only be able to cover about a third of winter gas requirements. Since it is unlikely that Russia will deliver appreciable amounts of natural gas via the other existing pipelines via Eastern Europe, significantly less of the fossil fuel will be available than in the winters of recent years. This means consumption will fall as supply is lower. The official goal is a reduction of 20 percent, energy experts consider 25 percent to be necessary. The only question is how this will ultimately be achieved.
After savings specifications for public facilities and retail trade and new rules for minimum temperatures in apartment buildings have been in force since September, a second energy saving regulation valid for two years will now come into force at the weekend. This affects companies with high gas consumption and all building owners. The latter are obliged to carry out regular inspections of gas heating systems for defects, for example by means of hydraulic balancing, and to replace inefficient circulating pumps.
The most important association of housing companies, GDW, reacted sourly: “The hydraulic balancing of heating systems is time-consuming, expensive and ineffective”, the lobby association complained a few days ago after the decision by the Federal Council. At least seven billion euros would have to be spent on a measure that would ultimately result in a maximum energy saving of two to three percent. In addition, there are far from enough qualified personnel in the sanitary industry to carry out this across the board in the given period of time.
However, this could have been done long ago without waiting for a regulation. In view of the high gas prices, the Federal Association of Consumers has been advising owners of private homes for many months to carry out a hydraulic balance to ensure that the right amount of water can flow through all radiators. The measure “usually increases the efficiency of the heating and ensures lower energy costs,” according to consumer advocates. Energy experts assume that with this and other smaller optimizations, ten to 15 percent of consumption can be saved.
A gas auction model will also come into effect on October 1st, which is intended to encourage companies to refrain from doing so in the event of short-term bottlenecks. “Industrial customers submit a bid at what price they are willing to reduce their gas consumption,” explains Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency. The lowest bids would be awarded the contract until the relationship between the available gas volume and consumption was balanced again.
The industry association BDI criticized that the so-called load reduction would hardly contribute to saving energy. And according to unconfirmed reports, the auctions are unlikely to be accepted by companies. Irrespective of this, however, consumption by industrial customers has recently been significantly lower than in the previous year: by a good 15 percent in August and by around 20 percent in the months before.
There are still many question marks as to whether the measures will be enough to make it through the winter to some extent, i.e. without reducing consumption through forced shutdowns of larger industrial consumers. The temperatures will also be decisive for this. And all forecasts by experts assume that at least the winter of 2023/24 could also become critical.
